2011年6月11日 星期六

未来行情

其实嘛,未来不是起就是跌咯,哈~ 废话一句。

但今天想记录的却是已然发生或综合一些人的意见。

胡立阳曾在受访是说过,未来全球股市都会是在窟窿里边颠簸不平的行走,那是说不会大起大落,但只要道路不平就够投机者损手烂脚了。

彭博社分析过,随着伯南克放话美国会持续的维持货币宽松政策,兄弟英国也跟随不会调高利率,甚至有人认为QE3已是蠢蠢欲动的待发,那将制造更大的热钱,更大的泡沫。而亚洲许多国家,包括大马,都在对是否调高利率而显得进退维谷。

不调高将会产生高通膨。调高也会引入热钱而创伤国内经济。

也因此,国家银行掌托人洁蒂表示,我国将会无可避免的面对恶性通膨,促请国人改变生活习惯。

香港名投资人也发表文章说,举凡大市崩塌之前,必有重量股上市。他举例过去曾经发生过的例子。而在过去数个月,全球的IPO胜地香港迎来了商品届的高盛-嘉能可,未来还有PRADA , COACH等,我国也悄然的引来许多大股准备上市,包括马糖厂。

当然还有不能忘记,冷眼前辈说过的,股市太高,不宜入场。

看来很多都是负面的,但根据一般理论,上帝在处决之前,必然先让你疯狂;又或者华尔街擦鞋童的故事;大马巴刹安娣买菜的故事等都还没上映,马股成交量还是处于10亿宗以下,这都不是崩溃的迹象啊?

不过,在我的认知里面,未来的高通膨是铁一般的事实。热钱会将股市再次推高也是寻常之相。而我们就必须中庸以对,要买,就买低负债,高现金,未来行业及公司业务成长可期的股票。周期性的股票最好别碰。再不然就什么都别买,诚如香港少年股神拉利所言:

保存现金也是一种投资态度。

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